MOSCOW (Reuters) – Inflationary expectations among Russian households for the year ahead stood at 13.4% in November, unchanged from October, yet still at their highest level for the year, the central bank said on Monday.

The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to 21% last month, the highest level in over 20 years, citing high inflation and elevated inflationary expectations as the main reasons for the move.

The central bank board will convene for the next rate-setting meeting on Dec. 20.

(Reuters) -Warner Bros Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD) and the National Basketball Association have agreed to extend their partnership for 11 more years, resolving recent disputes tied to the NBA’s media agreements, the entertainment giant said on Monday.

Shares of Warner Bros Discovery rose about 5% in early trading.

The company’s four-decade streak of airing NBA games on its Turner Sports network came under threat in July when the basketball body struck a new 11-year deal valued at $77 billion with Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS)’s ESPN, Comcast-owned NBCUniversal and Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN).

Reuters reported in July that Warner would sue NBA in New York after the league rejected its matching bid for TV broadcasting rights.

Under the terms of the new deal, Warner’s TNT Sports will get a global license to create, produce and distribute new and existing NBA content across its platforms.

Warner and sports network ESPN have also entered into a partnership, the companies said on Monday. TNT Sports will continue to fully create and produce “Inside the NBA”, with the show being distributed on ESPN and ABC.

Rights to the widely watched professional basketball league are a prized possession for media companies as sports content has retained a reliable and loyal audience even as traditional TV businesses lose millions of subscribers to cord-cutting.

(Reuters) – U.S. homebuilder sentiment rose to a seven-month high in November and expectations for sales in the next six months surged to the highest in about two-and-a-half years after a Republican election sweep fueled optimism for regulatory changes that could lead to more residential construction, a survey said on Monday.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose to 46 this month, the highest since April, from 43 in October. The reading was higher than all 28 estimates in a poll of economists by Reuters, which had a median expectation for 43.

NAHB’s measures of current sales and traffic of potential buyers both ticked higher, while expectations for sales over the next six months shot up to the highest since April 2022.

“With the elections now in the rear view mirror, builders are expressing increasing confidence that Republicans gaining all the levers of power in Washington will result in significant regulatory relief for the industry that will lead to the construction of more homes and apartments,” said NAHB Chairman Carl Harris, a custom homebuilder from Wichita, Kansas. “This is reflected in a huge jump in builder sales expectations over the next six months.”

The Nov. 5 election resulted in Republican control of the White House, with Donald Trump defeating Democrat Kamala Harris, and of both chambers of Congress. While Republicans have promised an aggressive deregulatory push, many of the rules affecting the building industry are determined at the state and local level – zoning laws in particular.

NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz also said that despite the improved sentiment, the industry still faces headwinds from labor shortages, a limited supply of building lots and elevated materials costs. Indeed, the construction industry is among the largest employers of immigrant workers, and Trump’s promises of a crackdown on immigration could further tighten the labor supply for the industry.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates as much as previously thought following recent data showing stickiness in inflation, and, in fact, mortgage rates have climbed sharply in the weeks since the central bank’s first rate cut in mid-September.

Residential construction has been a drag on U.S. economic growth. While single-family home building has recently improved, both groundbreaking for overall residential construction projects, including apartments, and new permit issuance have remained subdued. The Commerce Department is due to update that data on Tuesday, with economists projecting little change in that trend last month.

With mortgage rates remaining high, nearly a third of builders had to cut prices to lure buyers in November, and 60% of firms were offering sales incentives, NAHB said. The average price cut was 5%, down from 6% in October.

By Sybille de La Hamaide

PARIS (Reuters) – A trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur countries, which includes a significant section on agriculture, has triggered protests from EU farmers who argue farm imports from South America do not meet European standards.

The agreement dating from 2019 and published on the Commission website has yet to be adopted. It includes the establishment of import quotas of certain agricultural products from Mercosur countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, either duty free or at reduced levy.

The agreement would also give EU farmers increased access to South American markets which could boost exports of products such as wine, cheese, milk powder and olive oil.

Below are the main EU import quotas included in the agreement, most of which to be phased in over six years, their share of the EU market and potential impact based on a study of the European Commission’s joint research center (JRC).

BEEF

Under the agreement, the EU will allow 99,000 metric tons of beef, including 55% of “fresh”, high quality beef, and 45% of “frozen” beef, to be phased-in over five years, with a 7.5% duty.

This represents 1.2% of the overall EU beef consumption of 8 million tons per year.

The EU currently imports about 200,000 tons of beef every year from Mercosur countries.

That total includes the so-called Hilton quota which allows Brazil and Argentina to each export up to 10,000 tonnes of beef, and 29,500 tonnes of prime beef cuts to the EU each year. The current 20% duty on that quota is due to be removed.

The beef trade deficit with Mercosur countries would rise to 1.4 billion euros by 2032 from 1.0 billion in 2023, the JRC said.

POULTRY

The free trade agreement would allow duty-free imports of 180,000 tons of poultry meat per year from Mercosur countries.

This represents 1.4 % of overall EU poultry consumption of 12.6 million tons forecast in 2024, EU data showed.

The four Mercosur countries together are already the EU’s leading suppliers of chicken meat. When taken separately, Brazil – the world’s largest poultry producer – is number one, followed by Ukraine.

The additional 180,000 tons represent a 20% increase in total quota volumes, which would bring the share of imports in EU consumption of poultry meat to 10%, French poultry producers said.

The poultry trade deficit with Mercosur countries would rise to about 865 million euros by 2032 from 600 million in 2023, the JRC said.

SUGAR

Under the agreement, Brazil will see the tariff removed on the existing quota for 180,000 tons of sugar for refining.

Paraguay would be granted a new duty-free quota of 10,000 tons.

The agreed amounts cover a volume accounting for 1% of EU sugar consumption, which is expected at 17.7 million tons in 2024, against a production of 16.6 million tons, EU data showed.

The sugar trade deficit with Mercosur countries would rise to about 330 million euros by 2032 from 223 million in 2023, the JRC said.

ETHANOL

Mercosur countries would be granted two different tariff-rate quotas for a total of 650,000 tons, or 8.2 million hectolitres.

The first one, of 450,000 tons, would be duty-free for biochemical uses while the second, of 200,000 tons would be at a reduced levy and for all uses, including fuel.

The total represents approximately 15% of EU production.

MAIZE

Quota of 1,000,000 tons of duty-free maize and sorghum imports from Mercosur countries to be phased in over five years.

However, the quota would not change the current situation since maize imports are already duty free. It would only make a difference if world prices were to collapse, triggering automatic import duties on other imports.

Brazil was the second-largest maize supplier to the EU after Ukraine, with 2.9 million tonnes imported in the EU last season.

SOYBEAN PRODUCTS

The agreement will also reduce or eliminate duties that Mercosur countries currently impose on exports to the EU of products such as soybean products to be used in animal feed.

Mercosur is already the largest soybean and soybean product supplier of the EU.

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil’s Finance Ministry slightly upgraded its economic growth forecast for this year to 3.3%, up from the 3.2% projected in September, while maintaining the 2.5% growth estimate for next year.

Regarding inflation, the ministry’s economic policy secretariat raised its projections to 4.4% for this year, up from 4.25% previously, and 3.6% for next year, from an earlier estimate of 3.4%.

By Nikunj Ohri

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – The Indian government is pushing back on two key proposals of the central bank, which will require banks to set aside more funds for infrastructure projects and hold more liquid assets against online deposits, according to a government source.

Large parts of Asia’s third-largest economy rely on bank financing with lenders’ credit growing at nearly 14% over the past year.

The Reserve Bank of India (NS:BOI) (RBI) in May proposed banks set aside 5% of the loans given to infrastructure projects that are under construction, pushing banks to approach the government on concerns over a rise in the cost of funding such projects.

Separately, the central bank proposed in July that banks should provide an additional 5% ‘run-off’ on digitally accessible retail deposits to enable them to better manage risks from heavy withdrawals through internet or mobile banking.

This would result in banks holding more liquid assets such as government bonds, reducing the funds available to lend to customers.

Both the proposals have yet to take effect.

The federal finance ministry’s banking department, on two different occasions, has written to the RBI asking the guidelines be diluted as they could “squeeze credit in the economy”, the government source said.

For the proposed project finance guidelines, the banking department has suggested the RBI take a case-by-case approach towards different sectors for deciding the quantum of funds banks set aside, based on the sector’s risk profile, according to the source.

The source did not want to be named as they are not authorised to speak to media.

The finance ministry and RBI did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment.

High-risk projects in real estate sector can have a higher 5% provisioning limit, but solar and renewable energy projects should not be mandated to provide higher provisioning, the source said, adding the government has not suggested any ceiling for the percentage of funds needed to be set aside.

The regulatory guidelines should strike a balance between credit needs of the economy and the health of the banking sector, the source said.

For online deposits, the “run-off” should be mandated only for categories of deposits that may see heavy withdrawals, and not across the board, the source said.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Joe Biden’s budget director called on U.S. lawmakers on Monday to quickly pass emergency disaster relief funding in the wake of damaging storms and said it would send Congress a funding package in coming days.

Biden’s administration has made multiple requests for more disaster aid since Congress last passed supplemental funding in December 2022, but lawmakers have not acted despite multiple storms including Hurricanes Helene and Milton, White House Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young said.  

Severe storms also have hit Alaska, Connecticut, Louisiana, New Mexico, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Illinois, she wrote in a memo.    

“The Biden-Harris Administration stands ready to work with lawmakers to deliver the vital resources our communities need with strong bipartisan and bicameral support,” Young said, adding that disaster relief is not typically a partisan issue.

Young did not say how much the administration would seek but noted the roughly $120 billion after Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria in 2017, $90 billion in 2015 after Hurricane Katrina, and $50 billion after Hurricane Sandy in 2013.  

She also noted that Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, who visited North Carolina last month in the wake of Hurricane Helene, had told reporters Congress would take bipartisan action to provide an “appropriate amount” of federal funds.

Representatives for Johnson could not be immediately reached for comment on the request, which requires congressional approval. A new Republican-led Congress convenes in early January and Biden leaves office Jan. 20, handing over the White House to Republican Donald Trump.  

Hurricane Milton came ashore on Oct. 9 and carved a swathe of destruction across Florida, including an estimated $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion in crops and agricultural infrastructure damage alone, among other losses.    

Hurricane Helene had made landfall farther north just weeks earlier.    

 Analysts have said they expect up to $55 billion in insured losses from this year’s Hurricanes Helene and Milton.

Investing.com — Morgan Stanley analysts expect the Federal Reserve to implement a series of four consecutive 25 basis point interest rate cuts, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.625% by May 2025.

The bank’s forecast reflects slower economic growth, labor market cooling, and persistent inflationary pressures.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) highlighted that “lower immigration flows and more tariffs” are weighing on GDP growth and contributing to “stickier inflation.”

While Morgan Stanley says inflation is projected to decelerate through early 2025, they add that it is expected to remain above the Fed’s 2% target through 2026.

The firm forecasts core PCE inflation at 2.8% for 2024, 2.5% for 2025, and 2.4% for 2026.

The bank adds that economic growth is anticipated to slow significantly, with GDP projected to grow 2.4% in 2024, 1.9% in 2025, and 1.3% in 2026 on a year-over-year basis.

“The consumer slows” as labor income growth decelerates and tariffs dampen activity, Morgan Stanley said. They believe the labor market will also feel the effects, with unemployment rates rising from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.5% by the end of 2026.

Morgan Stanley anticipates the Fed will pause rate cuts in the second half of 2026 as economic growth falls below potential. Quantitative tightening (QT) is also expected to conclude by early 2025.

The bank outlined three alternate scenarios, including a “hard landing,” where the Fed overtightens, and GDP contracts in 2025; a “reacceleration,” where rate cuts fuel economic growth; and a “China reflation,” in which U.S. inflation slightly increases due to more expensive imports.

Amid these uncertainties, Morgan Stanley emphasized the Fed’s caution: “The Fed cuts 25bp in the next four FOMC meetings, taking the fed funds rate to 3.625% by May 25. Signs of stickier inflation and overall policy uncertainty lead the Fed to pause until 2H26 when rapid cuts bring rates below neutral as growth slows below potential. At the same time, the Fed finishes QT in 1Q25.”

Investing.com –Trade tariffs pose a threat to the global economic outlook, as per analysts at Goldman Sachs. 

In their recent note, the brokerage identifies the potential for widespread tariff increases as a major downside risk for international markets and economic growth. 

This concern is particularly acute in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions and the resurgence of protectionist policies across key economic blocs.

Goldman Sachs warns that if implemented, broad-based tariffs—especially on key trade routes involving major economies like the U.S. and China—could disrupt supply chains and drive up costs for businesses and consumers alike. 

These developments may stifle global trade flows and weigh on corporate earnings, particularly in industries heavily reliant on international supply networks such as manufacturing and technology.

In its 2025 economic forecast, Goldman Sachs projects steady growth for major economies, including 4.5% for China and 2.5% for the U.S. 

However, these projections are underpinned by the assumption that trade tensions do not escalate to the extent of introducing large-scale tariffs. 

The note says that any deviation from this assumption—such as the imposition of new trade barriers—could result in a downward revision of these growth forecasts.

The brokerage also flags the broader market implications of increased tariffs, noting that equity markets could face additional valuation pressures. 

With risk asset prices already reflecting optimistic macroeconomic forecasts, the introduction of punitive trade measures could trigger heightened volatility and dampen investor sentiment globally.

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – India’s economic growth requires “far more affordable” bank interest rates, the finance minister said on Monday, adding New Delhi was committed to measures to ensure the economy remained on course.

“At a time when we want industries to ramp up and build capacities, bank interest rates will have to be far more affordable,” the minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, said at an event in Mumbai.

Last week, the nation’s trade minister said the Reserve Bank of India (NS:BOI) (RBI) should cut interest rates to boost economic growth and look through food prices while deciding on monetary policy.

The comments came after a surge in retail inflation, largely driven by a jump in vegetable prices, dashed hopes of an interest rate cut by the RBI in December.

“Inflation gets actually very, very volatile because of the supply demand constraints,” Sitharaman said, while refusing to weigh in on whether perishable items like food should be considered in the nation’s inflation targeting framework and while deciding on monetary policy.

Earlier this year, India’s top economic advisor said India’s monetary policy framework should consider targeting inflation that excludes food, the prices of which are more influenced by supply than demand. The trade minister, Piyush Goyal, backed the suggestion.

Persistently high food inflation has also squeezed middle class budgets, slowing urban spending in the past three to four months and threatening the country’s brisk economic growth.

Sitharaman said there was no cause for undue concern and the government was committed to measures needed to ensure the Indian economy remains on course.