SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – A tight U.S. labor market is still adding to inflationary pressures, though less so than it did in 2022 and 2023, according to research published on Monday by the San Francisco Federal Reserve.

“Declines in excess demand pushed inflation down almost three-quarters of a percentage point over the past two years,” San Francisco Fed economists Regis (NASDAQ:RGS) Barnichon and Adam Hale Shapiro wrote in the regional Fed bank’s latest Economic Letter. “However, elevated demand continued to contribute 0.3 to 0.4 percentage point to inflation as of September 2024.” 

The finding, based on an analysis of the relationship between inflation and labor market heat as measured by the ratio of job openings to job seekers, could help inform Fed policymakers as they weigh how much further and at what pace to reduce short-term borrowing costs. 

The U.S. central bank began lowering its policy rate in September in response to a slowdown in inflation and cooling of the job market. After a second rate cut earlier this month, the rate now sits in the 4.50%-4.75% range. U.S. central bankers believe that level is high enough to keep the brakes on the economy, but there is broad internal disagreement over how restrictive the rate is, and therefore about when and how much to cut it further.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who has followed the sharp decline in the job-openings to job-seeker ratio closely, has said he believes labor demand is now in rough balance with supply and that the job market is no longer a source of significant inflationary pressures. 

The San Francisco Fed research suggests the job market continues to be a source of inflation, which Powell estimates was 2.3% in October by the Fed’s targeted measure, and 2.8% by a measure stripping out food and energy that the Fed uses to gauge underlying inflationary pressures. 

The U.S. central bank aims for 2% inflation.

PARIS (Reuters) -French luxury group Kering (EPA:PRTP) said on Monday it had named Cedric Charbit as CEO of fashion house Saint Laurent, choosing a leader for its second largest fashion label from within its ranks.

He replaces Francesca Bellettini, who has also been group deputy CEO since last year, overseeing brand development, including jewellery labels.

Charbit, currently chief executive of smaller fashion label Balenciaga, also owned by Kering, will be replaced by Gianfranco Gianangeli.

The executives take up their positions on Jan. 2, reporting to Bellettini, Kering said in a statement.

“These evolutions further reinforce our organisation,” said Kering Chairman and CEO François-Henri Pinault, noting Bellettini would now be able to focus on her deputy CEO role.

Kering has undergone a sweeping overhaul in recent months, reshuffling the upper management of the company as it seeks to revive sales growth at its star label Gucci, which fell behind rivals during the pandemic and is struggling to regain traction amid an industry slump.

Last month, the group named Stefano Cantino CEO of Gucci after an interim period in which it was run by Jean-Francois Palus, Pinault’s longtime right-hand man.

Charbit has been CEO of Balenciaga for eight years, and worked at Saint Laurent before that.

Gianangeli, formerly CEO of Maison Margiela, has been chief commercial officer for Saint Laurent since last year.

By David Lawder and Andrea Shalal

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Joe Biden pledged a $4 billion U.S. contribution to the World Bank’s International Development Association fund for the world’s poorest countries, two sources with knowledge of the commitment said on Monday.

Biden announced the U.S. pledge during a closed session of the Group of 20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, according to the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The amount is a record and substantially exceeds the $3.5 billion Washington committed in the previous IDA fund replenishment round in December 2021.

A White House spokesperson in Washington declined comment on the World Bank’s IDA replenishment.

It is unclear if U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has proposed cutting foreign aid in the past, will honor Biden’s pledge as he and billionaire Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk seek to slash U.S. spending through a new government efficiency panel. An appropriation by the U.S. Congress to fund the commitment would not likely take place until after Trump takes office in January.

A spokesperson for Trump’s transition team could not immediately be reached for comment.

‘HISTORIC’ PLEDGE

Earlier in Rio de Janeiro, U.S. deputy national security adviser Jonathan Finer told reporters that Biden would announce a “historic” pledge to the IDA replenishment.

Finer also told reporters at a briefing on the G20 summit that Biden will launch a bilateral clean energy partnership when he meets Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Tuesday.

The World Bank’s IDA fund, which provides mainly grants and very low interest loans to the poorest countries, is replenished every three years, and a pledging conference is scheduled for Dec. 6.

World Bank President Ajay Banga is aiming for a record amount exceeding the $93 billion refunding in December 2021, amid rising demands from poor nations in Africa and elsewhere that are struggling with crushing debts, climate disasters, conflict and other pressures.

Banga told Reuters in October that a $120 billion replenishment is possible, but that goal would require some substantial increases in country commitments.

Biden’s new U.S. commitment is about 14.3% higher than its 2021 contribution. At the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in October, Spain announced plans to boost its contribution by 37% to 400 million euros ($423 million).

Denmark in September announced a 40% increase in its contribution to about $492 million.

(This story has been corrected to clarify that Biden announces ‘historic’ pledge to IDA, not Trump, in paragraph 6)

By Steve Holland

WEST PALM BEACH, Florida (Reuters) – President-elect Donald Trump’s search for a Treasury secretary is widening after it stalled over the weekend and he is looking at other candidates, two sources briefed on the matter said on Monday.

Banker Howard Lutnick and investor Scott Bessent had been lead candidates for the top Treasury job in the new Trump administration, Reuters reported last week. However, no announcement about the position was made and the team has widened the search, the two sources said.

Among the other names being considered are Apollo Global Management (NYSE:APO) Chief Executive Marc Rowan, one of the sources said, confirming earlier reporting by the New York Times (NYSE:NYT) and the Wall Street Journal, which said that Trump was also considering former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh.

Rowan and Warsh did not immediately respond to requests for comment. A spokesperson for Bessent declined to comment. A spokesperson for Lutnick declined to comment.

It was unclear if any candidates had been ruled out or if other names could be added to the mix. A number of other people have also been speculated for the position.

The Treasury secretary role is one of the highest-profile cabinet posts, overseeing the country’s financial and economic policy. As such, it is one of the key roles being watched by global investors and Wall Street.

As of Sunday, Trump was also considering Lutnick for another economic job, possibly that of commerce secretary, the source briefed on the matter told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Two top Trump advisers, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is Trump’s pick to head the Health and Human Services Department, sided with Lutnick for the position, sending supportive posts on social media.

Musk did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment beyond his post on X. A spokesperson for Kennedy did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Trump transition team did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

By Carlos Vargas and Nelson Bocanegra

BOGOTA (Reuters) -Colombia’s economy grew 2.0% year-on-year in the third quarter, the government’s DANE statistics agency said on Monday.

The result came in below market expectations of 2.3% in a Reuters poll last week and the central bank technical team’s 2.4% forecast.

The economy grew by 0.2% from the second quarter, DANE added.

The year-on-year expansion was driven by entertainment, which grew 14.1%, agriculture, which grew 10.7%, and finance, which expanded 4.4%, DANE director Piedad Urdinola told a press conference.

The mining sector contracted by 7.1%, while manufacturing shrank 1.3%, DANE said.

Private investment in the third quarter was up 22.7% year-on-year, DANE said.

For the first nine months of 2024, economic output was up 1.6% year-on-year.

Inflation stood at 5.41% in October, well above the central bank’s 3% target. Since last December, it has cut its benchmark interest rate by 325 basis points to 9.75%.

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Inflationary expectations among Russian households for the year ahead stood at 13.4% in November, unchanged from October, yet still at their highest level for the year, the central bank said on Monday.

The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to 21% last month, the highest level in over 20 years, citing high inflation and elevated inflationary expectations as the main reasons for the move.

The central bank board will convene for the next rate-setting meeting on Dec. 20.

(Reuters) -Warner Bros Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD) and the National Basketball Association have agreed to extend their partnership for 11 more years, resolving recent disputes tied to the NBA’s media agreements, the entertainment giant said on Monday.

Shares of Warner Bros Discovery rose about 5% in early trading.

The company’s four-decade streak of airing NBA games on its Turner Sports network came under threat in July when the basketball body struck a new 11-year deal valued at $77 billion with Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS)’s ESPN, Comcast-owned NBCUniversal and Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN).

Reuters reported in July that Warner would sue NBA in New York after the league rejected its matching bid for TV broadcasting rights.

Under the terms of the new deal, Warner’s TNT Sports will get a global license to create, produce and distribute new and existing NBA content across its platforms.

Warner and sports network ESPN have also entered into a partnership, the companies said on Monday. TNT Sports will continue to fully create and produce “Inside the NBA”, with the show being distributed on ESPN and ABC.

Rights to the widely watched professional basketball league are a prized possession for media companies as sports content has retained a reliable and loyal audience even as traditional TV businesses lose millions of subscribers to cord-cutting.

(Reuters) – U.S. homebuilder sentiment rose to a seven-month high in November and expectations for sales in the next six months surged to the highest in about two-and-a-half years after a Republican election sweep fueled optimism for regulatory changes that could lead to more residential construction, a survey said on Monday.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose to 46 this month, the highest since April, from 43 in October. The reading was higher than all 28 estimates in a poll of economists by Reuters, which had a median expectation for 43.

NAHB’s measures of current sales and traffic of potential buyers both ticked higher, while expectations for sales over the next six months shot up to the highest since April 2022.

“With the elections now in the rear view mirror, builders are expressing increasing confidence that Republicans gaining all the levers of power in Washington will result in significant regulatory relief for the industry that will lead to the construction of more homes and apartments,” said NAHB Chairman Carl Harris, a custom homebuilder from Wichita, Kansas. “This is reflected in a huge jump in builder sales expectations over the next six months.”

The Nov. 5 election resulted in Republican control of the White House, with Donald Trump defeating Democrat Kamala Harris, and of both chambers of Congress. While Republicans have promised an aggressive deregulatory push, many of the rules affecting the building industry are determined at the state and local level – zoning laws in particular.

NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz also said that despite the improved sentiment, the industry still faces headwinds from labor shortages, a limited supply of building lots and elevated materials costs. Indeed, the construction industry is among the largest employers of immigrant workers, and Trump’s promises of a crackdown on immigration could further tighten the labor supply for the industry.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates as much as previously thought following recent data showing stickiness in inflation, and, in fact, mortgage rates have climbed sharply in the weeks since the central bank’s first rate cut in mid-September.

Residential construction has been a drag on U.S. economic growth. While single-family home building has recently improved, both groundbreaking for overall residential construction projects, including apartments, and new permit issuance have remained subdued. The Commerce Department is due to update that data on Tuesday, with economists projecting little change in that trend last month.

With mortgage rates remaining high, nearly a third of builders had to cut prices to lure buyers in November, and 60% of firms were offering sales incentives, NAHB said. The average price cut was 5%, down from 6% in October.

By Sybille de La Hamaide

PARIS (Reuters) – A trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur countries, which includes a significant section on agriculture, has triggered protests from EU farmers who argue farm imports from South America do not meet European standards.

The agreement dating from 2019 and published on the Commission website has yet to be adopted. It includes the establishment of import quotas of certain agricultural products from Mercosur countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, either duty free or at reduced levy.

The agreement would also give EU farmers increased access to South American markets which could boost exports of products such as wine, cheese, milk powder and olive oil.

Below are the main EU import quotas included in the agreement, most of which to be phased in over six years, their share of the EU market and potential impact based on a study of the European Commission’s joint research center (JRC).

BEEF

Under the agreement, the EU will allow 99,000 metric tons of beef, including 55% of “fresh”, high quality beef, and 45% of “frozen” beef, to be phased-in over five years, with a 7.5% duty.

This represents 1.2% of the overall EU beef consumption of 8 million tons per year.

The EU currently imports about 200,000 tons of beef every year from Mercosur countries.

That total includes the so-called Hilton quota which allows Brazil and Argentina to each export up to 10,000 tonnes of beef, and 29,500 tonnes of prime beef cuts to the EU each year. The current 20% duty on that quota is due to be removed.

The beef trade deficit with Mercosur countries would rise to 1.4 billion euros by 2032 from 1.0 billion in 2023, the JRC said.

POULTRY

The free trade agreement would allow duty-free imports of 180,000 tons of poultry meat per year from Mercosur countries.

This represents 1.4 % of overall EU poultry consumption of 12.6 million tons forecast in 2024, EU data showed.

The four Mercosur countries together are already the EU’s leading suppliers of chicken meat. When taken separately, Brazil – the world’s largest poultry producer – is number one, followed by Ukraine.

The additional 180,000 tons represent a 20% increase in total quota volumes, which would bring the share of imports in EU consumption of poultry meat to 10%, French poultry producers said.

The poultry trade deficit with Mercosur countries would rise to about 865 million euros by 2032 from 600 million in 2023, the JRC said.

SUGAR

Under the agreement, Brazil will see the tariff removed on the existing quota for 180,000 tons of sugar for refining.

Paraguay would be granted a new duty-free quota of 10,000 tons.

The agreed amounts cover a volume accounting for 1% of EU sugar consumption, which is expected at 17.7 million tons in 2024, against a production of 16.6 million tons, EU data showed.

The sugar trade deficit with Mercosur countries would rise to about 330 million euros by 2032 from 223 million in 2023, the JRC said.

ETHANOL

Mercosur countries would be granted two different tariff-rate quotas for a total of 650,000 tons, or 8.2 million hectolitres.

The first one, of 450,000 tons, would be duty-free for biochemical uses while the second, of 200,000 tons would be at a reduced levy and for all uses, including fuel.

The total represents approximately 15% of EU production.

MAIZE

Quota of 1,000,000 tons of duty-free maize and sorghum imports from Mercosur countries to be phased in over five years.

However, the quota would not change the current situation since maize imports are already duty free. It would only make a difference if world prices were to collapse, triggering automatic import duties on other imports.

Brazil was the second-largest maize supplier to the EU after Ukraine, with 2.9 million tonnes imported in the EU last season.

SOYBEAN PRODUCTS

The agreement will also reduce or eliminate duties that Mercosur countries currently impose on exports to the EU of products such as soybean products to be used in animal feed.

Mercosur is already the largest soybean and soybean product supplier of the EU.

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil’s Finance Ministry slightly upgraded its economic growth forecast for this year to 3.3%, up from the 3.2% projected in September, while maintaining the 2.5% growth estimate for next year.

Regarding inflation, the ministry’s economic policy secretariat raised its projections to 4.4% for this year, up from 4.25% previously, and 3.6% for next year, from an earlier estimate of 3.4%.