BANGKOK (Reuters) -Thailand expects to conduct the third phase of its cash handout stimulus programme in the second quarter next year, when 140 billion baht ($4.1 billion) will be distributed to 14 million people, a deputy finance minister said on Wednesday.

“The various stimulus measures can push growth above 3% next year. We are quite confident of that,” Julapun Amornvivat said, adding that full-year growth in 2024 will not exceed 2.8%.

About 14.5 million people have so far received a payment of 10,000 baht ($290), out of an estimated 45 million who are expected to be take part in the government’s signature scheme.

In January, 40 billion baht will be transferred to the elderly, followed by 140 billion baht in the second quarter to others who registered, Julapun said.

The government also plans to spend 40 billion baht to lower costs of production for farmers by early next year, he added.

Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy grew 3% in the July-September period this year, the state-planning agency said this week, the fastest rate in two years.

The agency forecast growth of 2.6% this year and 2025 growth in a range of 2.3% to 3.3%.Last year’s growth of 1.9% lagged regional peers. The economy has struggled under high household debt and borrowing costs as well as sluggish demand from major trading partner China.

After sustained government pressure, the central bank unexpectedly cut its policy interest rate last month. Its next rate review is on Dec. 18.

($1 = 34.49 baht)

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu

Trading was subdued in Asia with everyone waiting for the earnings results of AI darling Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), the world’s most valuable company with a market cap of $3.6 trillion.

Expectations are running high given that its shares already rallied 5% overnight. Trade in options points to a nearly $300-billion swing in market value, which will make for a potentially messy trading session ahead.

In Asia, shares were mixed, with Japan trailing behind with a drop of 0.4%. Wall Street futures were mostly steady and European stock futures also pointed to a subdued start for markets there.

Investors were rattled by Ukraine’s use of U.S. missiles to strike Russia, with Russia lowering the threshold for a possible nuclear strike, although those fears seem to have abated a little.

Bitcoin broke above $94,000 for the first time on expectations that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s administration will be crypto-friendly. Trump has yet to announce his pick for Treasury secretary yet but it could come as soon as Wednesday.

Before all the Nvidia action, British inflation data for October is due and any upside surprises there would perhaps add to recent signs that the global disinflationary pulse may have stalled.

Canada’s inflation accelerated back above 2% as investors scaled back the chance of another outsized half-point rate cut from the Bank of Canada in December. Traders are not even sure if the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points next month.

Economists expect core CPI in Britain to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis, which would push up the annual rate to 3.1% from 2.9% in the prior month. Headline inflation is likely to have rebounded to 2.2% from 1.9% before.

For the Bank of England, markets are already pricing in a gradual approach to future easing – about one cut per quarter – after chancellor Rachel Reeves’ big spending budget.

There are also a few Fed officials due to speak tonight, as well as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, all worth watching to see how far the interest rates in Europe and the U.S. could go the opposite way.

Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:

— UK CPI for October

— Nvidia Q3 earnings

— Fed Board Governor Lisa Cook, Fed Board Governor Michelle Bowman, Fed Boston President Susan Collins and ECB President Christine Lagarde due to speak at events

By Kevin Buckland

TOKYO (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar slipped to a one-week low versus major peers on Wednesday, looking to extend a three-day decline from a one-week peak as the market catches its breath following the frantic rally in the wake of Donald Trump’s election.

A boost to the dollar and other traditional safe-haven currencies like the yen overnight proved short-lived, after Russia’s foreign minister said the country will “do everything possible” to avoid the onset of nuclear war, hours after Moscow announced it would lower its threshold for a nuclear strike.

Bitcoin pushed to a fresh all-time peak above $94,000, carried by expectations for a friendlier regulator environment for cryptocurrencies under Trump.

The dollar index – which measures the currency against six major peers, including the yen and euro – fell to a low of 106.07 for the first time since Wednesday of last week, and stood at 106.18 at 0247 GMT.

The index climbed to a one-year high of 107.07 on Thursday, buoyed by expectations for big fiscal spending, higher tariffs and tighter immigration under the incoming U.S. administration, measures which economists say could foster inflation and potentially slow Federal Reserve easing.

Investors are still waiting for Trump to name a Treasury Secretary, following the announcement of several other high-profile appointments, including Wall Street CEO Howard Lutnick as head of the Commerce Department.

Some of Trump’s picks have provoked controversy for their relatively meagre relevant experience.

“The ‘Trump Trade’ that boosted the greenback is facing challenges from Trump’s controversial cabinet nominations and the escalation in the Russian-Ukraine war,” DBS strategists wrote in a client note.

For the dollar over longer term though, “more weight should be put on firm economic data and the increasing likelihood that the Fed may have to slow the rate cut path even more in 2025”, they said.

Traders continue to pare back expectations for an interest-rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting in December. Odds now stand at 57.3%, down from 58.7% a day earlier, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. A month ago, wagers were at 76.8%.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that “the economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates”, following a run of robust economic indicators.

The dollar added 0.9% to 154.84 yen after falling sharply to 153.28 on Tuesday following the Russia news.

The euro held steady at $1.0598, having recovered from a drop to $1.0524 in the previous session.

Bitcoin was flat at $91,954 after earlier climbing to a record $94,078.22.

The Financial Times reported that Trump’s social media company was in talks to buy crypto trading firm Bakkt, bolstering hopes of a cryptocurrency-friendly regime under his administration.

By Leika Kihara

TOKYO (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan is laying the groundwork to raise interest rates again, but has left markets guessing how soon and at what pace it could push up still-low borrowing costs.

Here is a guide to the BOJ’s recent communications on when and how far it could eventually raise interest rates:

WHAT HAS THE BOJ SAID AND DONE SO FAR?

The BOJ ended negative interest rates in March and raised its short-term policy target to 0.25% in July. In the latest sign another hike was nearing, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Nov. 18 the economy was progressing towards sustained wages-driven inflation.

Ueda has also talked up the benefits of timely rate hikes, saying that pushing up borrowing costs from ultra-low levels would help achieve long-term economic growth.

The rhetoric is similar to that used during the BOJ’s previous rate-hike cycle in 2007. Then governor Toshihiko Fukui had said phasing out stimulus early would help achieve stable, long-lasting economic growth by forestalling a bubble.

Under Fukui, the BOJ hiked rates twice from zero to bring them up to 0.5% in February 2007. But it was forced back into a rate-cut cycle the following year to combat the global financial crisis. Rates would remain around zero for another 16 years.

WHEN COULD THE BOJ NEXT RAISE INTEREST RATES?

Ueda is confident wages will keep rising and boost consumption, allowing companies to continue pushing up prices, meeting the prerequisite for more rate hikes.

While warning of U.S. economic uncertainty and market volatility, Ueda said the BOJ wouldn’t necessarily wait until all such risks disappeared, which suggests he is open to hiking again at the next meeting on Dec. 18-19.

BOJ policymakers won’t commit to a preset timing for the next rate hike. But they see no problem with markets pricing in a rate hike to 0.5% some time by end-March.

WHERE DOES THE BOJ SEE JAPAN’S NEUTRAL RATE?

If the economy continues to recover, the BOJ will keep raising its short-term policy rate towards Japan’s neutral interest rate – or the level at which monetary policy is neither contractionary nor expansionary.

The BOJ keeps short-term rates at 0.25% even though inflation had hovered around 2% for well over two years, meaning inflation-adjusted, real borrowing costs remain very low.

By pushing up borrowing costs to levels deemed neutral to the economy, the BOJ can remove what it sees as excessive monetary stimulus.

But estimating the neutral rate, which cannot be observed, isn’t easy with different models yielding varying results. Major central banks use neutral rates as a benchmark, but warn against overly relying on it in conducting monetary policy.

The BOJ has produced staff estimates using different models that show Japan’s inflation-adjusted real neutral rate to be in a range of around -1% to +0.5%. That means if inflation were to hit the BOJ’s 2% target, the BOJ can hike its short-term rate at least to around 1% without cooling growth.

Based on current forecasts made in October, the BOJ expects short-term rates to approach what it considers neutral “in the latter half of the three-year projection period” through March 2027, which suggests some time after October 2025.

While board member Naoki Tamura said in September the BOJ must raise rates to at least 1% as soon as late next year, his colleagues remain mum on the neutral rate level. Ueda has said it was too hard to come up with credible estimates due to a lack of data, as Japan had seen rates stuck at zero for so long.

WHAT ARE KEY TRIGGERS TO WATCH?

Neutral rates aside, yen moves will have a big effect on the BOJ’s rate hike timing. A weak yen was one factor that prodded the BOJ to hike rates in July, as it pushes up the cost of imports and broader inflation.

Uncertainty over U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s economic policy also complicates the BOJ’s decision. Many of his policies are seen as inflationary and may prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates too much, thereby keeping the yen weak against the dollar.

WHEN MIGHT THE BOJ OFFER MORE HINTS?

Consumer inflation data for October, due on Nov. 22, will be closely watched for clues on whether companies are passing on rising labour costs through hikes in services prices.

Toyoaki Nakamura, a dovish BOJ board member who is cautious about hiking rates too quickly, delivers a speech and news conference on Dec. 5.

The BOJ will release its “tankan” quarterly business survey on Dec. 13. If the data shows strength in business mood, capital expenditure plans and corporate inflation expectations, that could heighten the chance of a December rate hike.

SHANGHAI (Reuters) -China left benchmark lending rates unchanged at the monthly fixing on Wednesday, after lenders slashed the rates by higher-than-expected margins last month to revive economic activity.

WHY IT’S IMPORTANT

The steady monthly loan prime rate (LPR) fixings come within market expectations, as recent rate cuts squeeze banks’ profitability and the yuan comes under fresh pressure with Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House.

BY THE NUMBERS

The one-year LPR was kept at 3.1%, and the five-year LPR was unchanged at 3.6%.

In a Reuters survey of 28 market participants conducted this week, all respondents expected the rates to remain unchanged.

CONTEXT

Beijing has announced a series of stimulus steps since late September, ranging from monetary easing, to fiscal measures and property market support, in a bid to pull the economy out of a deflationary funk and back towards the government’s growth target.

But Trump’s inflationary economic plan and fresh yuan weakness against the backdrop of investor fear of higher tariffs on Chinese goods may limit Beijing’s monetary easing efforts for the time being.

China may wait until Trump takes office in January and reveals more of his policy intentions, analysts said.

During Trump’s first presidency, the yuan weakened about 5% against the dollar in the initial round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018, and fell another 1.5% a year later when trade tensions escalated.

Since the Nov. 5 U.S. election, the yuan has fallen around 1.8% against the dollar.

New bank lending in China tumbled more than expected to a three-month low in October, as a ramp-up of policy stimulus to buttress a wavering economy failed to boost credit demand.

KEY QUOTES

“China’s economy will continue facing risks though, from property market to strained local government finance, from persistently weak aggregate demand to a very likely escalation of trade and tech war,” analysts at DBS said in a note this week, expecting a marginal 10-basis-point reduction in one-year LPR in December and another 50 bps cut in 2025.

By Renju Jose

SYDNEY (Reuters) – The gender pay gap in Australia has narrowed marginally though women employees on average still earned A$28,425 ($18,590) less each year than their male colleagues, a government report said on Wednesday.

The total gender pay gap dipped by 0.6 percentage points to 21.8% for the year to March 2024 as more than half of employers improved the pay gap between men and women doing the same job in Australia, the Workplace Gender Equality Agency (WGEA) said.

“The results show change is happening, with a significant increase in employers investigating what’s driving their gender pay gap and acting on the results,” WGEA CEO Mary Wooldridge said in a statement accompanying the report.

An increase in the wages of low-paid workers, particularly in aged care, where women make up about 80% of employees, was the significant contributor. But female CEOs are paid annually an average of A$158,632 less than men, Wooldridge said.

More than 56% of employers and the majority in every industry improved their average total remuneration gender pay gap over the last year, she added.

The report comes as the centre-left Labor government aims to introduce legislation to the parliament this week that would require firms with 500 or more employees to commit to measurable targets to progress gender equality in their workplaces.

Employers must pick targets related to the gender makeup of the workforce, the gender pay gap, flexible working arrangements, workplace consultation on gender equality and efforts to prevent sexual harassment, Minister for Women Katy Gallagher said in a statement.

A report in February showed the gender pay gap at some of Australia’s biggest firms was bigger than the national average.

Companies with more than 100 employees are required by law to reveal the pay of male and female employees every year. The next report is due in February 2025.

($1 = 1.5291 Australian dollars)

By Makiko Yamazaki

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s exports rebounded in October, led by a pickup in chip equipment demand in China, data showed on Wednesday, suggesting that solid global demand was underpinning the country’s still fragile economic recovery.

The data comes as Japanese businesses are weighing the impact of new and potentially hefty tariffs promised by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump that could upend international trade.

Total (EPA:TTEF) exports rose 3.1% year-on-year in October, the data showed, more than a median market forecast for a 2.2%% increase and following a 1.7% drop in September.

Exports to China rose 1.5% in October from a year earlier, while those to the United States, Japan’s largest export destination, were down 6.2%, the data showed.

Imports grew 0.4% in October from a year earlier, compared with market forecasts for a 0.3% decease.

That resulted in a trade deficit of 461.2 billion yen ($2.98 billion) in October, compared with the forecast of a deficit of 360.4 billion yen.

While the October data was solid, Japanese exports could face pressure from potential U.S. tariffs, a key element of Trump’s pitch to voters.

A proposed 10% tariff on all U.S. imports could push down Japan’s gross domestic product by 0.13%, and another 0.12% if a potential 60% levy on Chinese-made products triggers retaliatory tariffs from China, according to estimates by Shunsuke Kobayashi, chief economist at Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities.

Japan is seeing growing signs of a recovery in domestic demand. Last week’s GDP data for the July-September quarter showed a stronger-than-expected pickup in private consumption backed by rising wages.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday that the economy was progressing towards sustained wages-driven inflation, leaving open the chance of another interest rate hike as early as next month.

($1 = 154.6700 yen)

(Reuters) – Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), China’s biggest e-commerce company, said on Wednesday it has priced both its US-dollar-denominated and yuan-denominated bonds as part of the $5 billion it had aimed to raise in the dual currency bond deal.

The company priced an offering of $2.65 billion aggregate principal amount of U.S. dollar-denominated notes and RMB 17 billion ($2.35 billion) worth of offshore yuan-denominated notes.

The offering of the dollar notes is expected to close on Nov. 26, while that of the yuan notes will close on Nov. 28, subject to conditions, the company said in a statement.

Reuters had earlier reported that the U.S. dollar tranche would consist of 5-1/2-year, 10-1/2-year and 30-year bonds, citing a term sheet. The report said Alibaba was also working on 3-1/2-year, 5-year, 10-year and 20-year offshore yuan tranche.

Alibaba intends to use the net proceeds from the offering of the notes for general corporate purposes, including repayment of offshore debt and share repurchases.

($1 = 7.2385 Chinese yuan renminbi)

Investing.com– The People’s Bank of China left its benchmark loan prime rate unchanged on Wednesday, with Beijing seeking more clarity on U.S. politics before unlocking more support for the economy. 

The PBOC kept its one-year LPR at 3.10% after cutting it by 25 basis points in October. The five-year LPR, which determines mortgage rates, was left at 3.60% after a 25 bps cut in the prior month.

The LPR is determined by the PBOC based on considerations from 18 designated commercial banks, and is used as a benchmark for lending rates in the country.

Analysts had widely expected the LPR to remain unchanged this month, with Beijing seen awaiting more clarity on what a second Donald Trump presidency will entail for Sino-U.S. trade before unlocking more economic support.

China rolled out a slew of aggressive stimulus measures since late September to support growth. But the country held off on outlining more targeted fiscal measures, amid caution over increased trade tariffs under Trump, who has vowed to impose a 60% import tariff on all Chinese goods.

The PBOC was also seen as having limited space to cut interest rates further, especially as the Chinese yuan was battered following Trump’s election. The central bank had steadily cut the LPR further into record-low territory over the past two years to support growth.

But monetary measures have so far provided limited support to the Chinese economy, which is still struggling with persistent deflation and a property market slump.

By William Schomberg

LONDON (Reuters) – Britain’s official labour market statistics may be failing to count almost 1 million people who are in work, complicating the Bank of England’s task of deciding how quickly to cut interest rates, a think tank said on Wednesday.

The Resolution Foundation said the official methodology – which is being overhauled – might also be overestimating the number of workers who have dropped out of the jobs market.

The BoE has cut rates by half a percentage point since August, less than the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve, largely because of its worries about inflation pressures in the job market.

“Official statistics have misrepresented what has happened in the UK labour market since the pandemic, and left policymakers in the dark by painting an overly pessimistic picture of our labour market,” Adam Corlett, principal economist at the Resolution Foundation, said.

The Office for National Statistics, like agencies in other countries, has struggled to get responses to its surveys since the COVID pandemic.

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has lamented the state of the official data, saying last week it was “a substantial problem”.

The Resolution Foundation said the ONS appeared to be underestimating growth in the number of people in work since 2019 by 930,000.

The think tank used data from the tax office, self-employment figures and new population data to make its estimate which closely tracked official employment numbers until 2020. Since then it has diverged sharply.

Corlett said the employment rate, using the foundation’s approach, probably rose to its pre-pandemic peak in 2023 before edging down in 2024 to broadly the same level as in 2019.

The official data suggests the employment rate is lower than it was in 2019, which is at odds with high vacancy rates and strong wage growth, he said.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer is aiming to get the employment rate up to 80%, up from the official estimate of 74.8% now.

“The government faces a significant challenge in aiming to raise employment, even if the rate is higher than previously thought,” Corlett said. “But crafting good policy is made harder still if the UK does not have reliable employment statistics.”